Simulation
To help us decide whether it is surprising to see a result of 14 out of 16 if infants have no genuine preference in the long run, we could use the following simulation model:
| Real world | Model | |
| Observational unit: | Infant | Coin toss |
| variable | helper or hinderer | heads or tails |
| success | helper | heads |
| Probability of success | unknown... | 0.50 |
| Sample size | 16 infants | 16 coin tosses |
(d) Find a coin and flip it 16 times, keeping track of the heads/tails outcomes. Let a result of heads mean that the infant chooses the helper toy, tails for the hinderer toy. Tally the results by counting how many of the 16 chose the helper toy. Record your results in the Word file and add them to the graph at the front of the room.
(e) Conjecture: What types of values do you expect to see if we were to repeat this random process many, many times?
(f) After several people have submitted their results: What are the most typical values that students found? How many students obtained a result as extreme as the one observed by these researchers (14 making the same choice)?
