In this course we will use the "long-run proportion" definition of probability to determine and make sense of probabilities. To that end, here is some practice at re-phrasing probability statements using the long-run proportion definition.
For each statement, be sure to identify:
i. what random process is being repeated over and over again (what are the identical conditions) and
ii. what proportion is being calculated (e.g. proportion of wins).
Your answer should not include the words “probability,” “chance,” "odds," or “likelihood" or any other synonyms of "probability."
1. The probability of getting a red M&M candy is .2.
2. The probability of winning at a ‘daily number’ lottery game is 1/1000.
[Hint: Your answer should not include the number 1000! ]
3. There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow.
4. Suppose 70% of the population of adult Americans want to retain the penny. If I randomly select one person from this population, the probability this person wants to retain the penny is .70.
5. Suppose I take a random sample of 100 people from the population of adult Americans (with 70% voting to retain the penny). The probability that the sample proportion exceeds .80 is .015.
