Main Goals:

• Give them a flavor for the course (Myths/Realities)
• Introduce them to the practice of Statistics through examples (Misuses/Good uses)

First Homework.
First Day of Lab
Advice for Succeeding in the Course

To give students a flavor of what to expect in the course I discuss a series of myths and realities.
The Myths:

1. Statistics is a Math Course Reality 1
2. It's completely impossible for me to get a good grade for this course Reality 2
3. This course will be a cakewalk Reality 3
4. I can continue to cram for an exam the night before Reality 4
5. Statistics is memorizing formula Reality 5
6. There is usually one specific answer (London Newspaper Election Poll)Reality 6
7. The teacher is going to physically harm me if I ask a stupid questionReality 7
8. Statistics is not interesting and I will never use it Reality 8

I try to let them know that the course is a General Education course that also emphasizes reading numerical discussions, writing technical arguments, and reasoning statistically instead of plugging numbers into formulas. Computers can now do all the number crunching so our role has changed to telling the computer the right thing to do and then interpreting that output. They will also need to be able to justify their answers since mutliple interpretations are quite possible. I also try to convey that Statistics will be important no matter what career they choose, but also just for evaluating information in the newspaper. To study the material, I encourage them to approach it like a foreign language: immersing yourself in the use of the terms, constantly practicing with others. Also, since the student body taking the course is so diverse, I encourage them to work with others and share their perspectives. At the end I tell them my first goal of the course is for them to examine statistics with a critical eye (instead of accepting whatever numbers they hear) and to become intelligent consumers of statistical arguments.

Examples of Uses of Statistics

Instead of giving students a definitive definition of Statistics, I want them to discover what the field is about through a series of examples. I present the following points on overheads and have the class explain to me how they feel about the statements - if they feel they are effective uses of information. Through discussion, students find faults with each of the statements and build a list of things to look for when evaluating statistical arguments. Most of these examples are borrowed from Chapter 3, Section 4 of Concepts and Controversies by David Moore, 3rd edition. Moore has an excellent discussion on how to "look at data intelligently". The italics refer to actual news articles.

• True cigarettes have 5 milligrams less tar
• Anacin contains more of the ingredient doctors recommend most/Doctors specify Bufferin the most over other leading brands.
• Dr. Bragg claims his patients have 50% fewer cavities.
• GM advertises that JD Power picks the Lumina Coupe as the most trouble-free car in its class
• Science (1976): People over 65, now numbering 10 million, will number 30 million by the year 2000, and will constitute an unprecedented 25 percent of the population.
• Dr. Fudge took measurements for 20 animals, recording the number of successful trials. He reported percentages of 53, 58, 63, 46, 48, and 67.
  "Bosnia voter turnout 103.9% according to watchdog group"
• The Alabama Development Office reports that the state has attracted 422,657 new industrial jobs in the past 25 years.
• The unemployement rate is 7.1%
  Reported AIDS Cases
• In 1989, 5326 drivers 65 years of age and over were involved in fatal accidents. In contrast, only 2900 drivers aged 16 and 17 had fatal accidents. Thus, young people are safer drivers.
  "I may go on forever because Statistics show that few men die after the age of 100" - Amos Alonzo Stagg
  Sports and the emergency room
  Swifta, Higha, Stronga - US wins most Olympic medals
  South Dakota has the highest average SAT score
  
• The Investment Company Institute claims a $10,000 investment in 1950 in an average common stock mutual fund would have increased to $113,500 by the end of 1972.
• Schick Super chromium razor blades commercial: A group of barbers shave with the same blade, one after the other. The 12th, 13th, 15th, and 17th men to use the blade were interviewed and said the shave was satisfactory.
• "Heavy usage of marijuana hurts thinking"

I point out that even the experts make mistakes, discussing the Challenger Accident and showing them a picture of the "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline which is discussed later in the course.

Then I assure them that there plenty of good uses of statistics. I tell them some recent studies, e.g.:

• Was vaccine responsible for recent cases of polio
• Is there a genetic link to cancer
• Do lifestyle changes reduce the risk of heart disease
• What's the increase risk in car accidents from talking on a cellular phone
• Does walking by a store with a pleasing smell (e.g. Cinnabon) make people feel more charitable?
• Has the change in speed limit in California affected the rate of highway accidents

The first homework assignment I assign is for them to find 3 uses of statistics in the news and comment on whether they think it is a good use or a bad use.